Parikova N.V. 1
Pitukhin E.A. 1
Sigova S.V. 1
1 Petrozavodsk State University
Currently Russia is facing population decreasing in active working age that will affect economy demand in external labour resources, i.e. foreign labour migrants. In order to forecast foreign labour migration necessary for Russian economy it is supposed to apply for a reverse production function, that defines labour resources dependence upon estimated GDP volumes. While modeling, estimated numbers of Russian workers are determined through population decreasing in active working age. Type of function is also defined which reflects any changes in modal labour production the best. There are 4 potential scenarios of modal labour productivity for a projection period: «optimist», «middle», «pessimist», «aggravating». They are developed by means of functional relationship extrapolation for a retrospective period both taking into consideration and excluding economic crises. Consequently, in accordance with different scenarios of modal labour productivity for a projection period, projection dynamics, which is theoretically necessary for foreign workers numbers estimation to reach planned GDP volumes, is being thoroughly analyzed. Huge increase in foreign labour force might create tension aggravation on Russian labour market. As a result, the most favourable figures of estimated foreign workers will correlate to «optimist» and «middle» scenarios of modal labour productivity.
foreign workers
foreign labour migration
production function
modal labour productivity
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Рецензенты:
Васильева З.А., д.э.н., профессор, директор Института управления бизнес-процессов и экономики ФГАОУ ВПО «Сибирский федеральный университет», г. Красноярск;
Шишкин А.И., д.т.н., профессор, директор Института экономики Карельского научного центра РАН, г. Петрозаводск.
Работа поступила в редакцию 14.08.2012.
