Sigova S.V. 1
Pitukhin E.A. 1
Parikova N.V. 1
1 Petrozavodsk State University
Numbers of foreign workers necessary for Russian economy development are defined by different scenarios of labour productivity: «optimist», «middle», «pessimist» and «aggravating». Meanwhile, foreign workers huge increase contributes to labour market tension factor aggravation in Russia. In order to evaluate foreign labour migration it is supposed to apply for a new indicator – modified tension factor on labour market. Suggested indicator is applied for both groups who are seeking for jobs – unemployed and foreign workers. Group of unemployed embraces only Russian citizens, excluding foreign migrants. Projection of tension factor on Russian labour market is possible due to application of both Beveridge curve and Okun’s Law. In order to stop social tension based on retrospective data, let the critical point be set, which should not exceed modified tension factor for a projection period. Authors concluded that «optimist» scenario is the most favourable one with modal labour productivity amounting to 7,3 %, «middle» scenario will be marginal with the indicator amounting to 6,4 %.
foreign workers
foreign labour migration
Beveridge curve
modified tension factor on labour market
Okun’s Law
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Рецензенты:
Васильева З.А., д.э.н., профессор, директор Института управления бизнес-процессов и экономики ФГАОУ ВПО «Сибирский федеральный университет», г. Красноярск;
Шишкин А.И., д.т.н., профессор, директор Института экономики Карельского научного центра РАН, г. Петрозаводск.
Работа поступила в редакцию 14.08.2012.
