Disease gastro enteric path reflects reaction of the most "ancient" physiological system of an organism to occurring changes in internal and surrounding systems in a background of natural rhythms (reaction to the last is fixed of evolution). Reaction gastro enteric path certainly depends on stability of an organism to stresses. As the pathology of functioning gastro enteric path inevitably leads to infringements of normal functioning of various physiological systems, structure and change connecting to a role of a connecting fabric, studying of dynamics of levels of disease (and treatments) gastro enteric path in regions is an actual problem. The purpose of research was identification of the mathematical models reflecting dynamics of disease gastro enteric path in Kursk area on the basis of complex algebraic models, the modern computer technologies identified with use on the basis of self-organizational modeling. In particular, the models including cyclic components, time trends and the previous situations were identified. During the lead researches it is revealed, that: the period of dynamics of disease gastro enteric path is close to 4 years; the received mathematical models allow to predict reduction of hospitalization the nearest 3-5 years on a wire ulcer; dynamics of levels of disease " a sharp cholecystitis " has no expressed ритмологической a component; the period of disease gastro enteric path on various parameters lays in an interval of 4-6 years; natural rhythms of late hospitalization and deaths statistically do not correlate among themselves, that speaks about different "mechanisms" of the given processes.
Работа представлена на заочную электронную конференцию «Фундаментальные и прикладные проблемы медицины и биологии», 15-20 сентября 2005г. Поступила в редакцию 22.10.2005г.